Tailgate Packing List NFL Edition Week 11

Holy cow it is already week 11 in the NFL. This week features some tough match-ups, rivalry games, and potential stinkers as teams continue their playoff push, have given up all hope, or are doing whatever the heck the Jets are doing.  Coming off a week where we went a respectable 6-6 lets see if we can continue to improve upon record and get over .500 for the first time in what feels like weeks.

 Packers versus Bears

What is going on in Chicago is exactly what you can expect from this organization. The OC has been fired and the new OC is a man Caleb Williams “hasn’t spent that much time with”. I know that may seem alarming but don’t worry, he is just the former passing game coordinator. This team just reeks of dysfunction and the Packers are coming off their bye. A healthy Love should have success against this team and the running game is getting a key piece back in Lloyd. The Packers will look to right the ship against a Bears team trending downward.

Best Bet- Green Bay -5.5

Jaguars versus Lions

Goff is coming off one of his worst starts as a Detroit Lion in a game they won. The Jags scored on their first drive last week then proceeded to do nothing for the rest of the game. This game is primed to be a blowout as the Lions use this as a confidence builder and I have zero confidence in the Mac Jones led Jags. Every game Ben Johnson coaches is also just apart of his head coaching resume so look for the Lions to try and cash the over on their own.

Best Bet- Over 46.5

Vikings versus Titans

Call me delusional but I don’t hate the Titans and I think Levis looked decent last week. The Titans have a good defense still when they offense does not put them in impossible situations (Lions game) and Levis did not have an ESPN worthy mistake. The Vikings on the other hand did not look great the past two weeks even in games they have won. Sam Darnold is in the process of turning back into a pumpkin and I know it’s a long shot but I don’t think they make the playoffs (hot take of the week).

Best Bet- Titans +6

Raiders versus Dolphins

The Raiders QB situation has gotten so confusing I had to google who their starter would be this week. Partner that with a bad run game and a defense that features 10 no-name guys and Maxx Crosby, and this highlights a team not ready to win. The Dolphins had a great win against a confusing Rams team and Tua looked good. Tyreek is still incredibly fast and the run by committee approach is rounding back into form. I hate going with chalk but its tough to bet on this Raiders team to do anything positive.

Best Bet- Dolphins -7

Rams versus Patriots

Plot twist, Drake Maye may be the best QB in this draft class. I mocked Mayo several weeks ago when he called his defense soft and it turns out that I know less than an NFL head coach. The Pats have been awesome on defense and Maye has improved every week. The Rams confuse the heck out of me, one week their offense is back to being great then the next it is terrible. This game feels almost impossible to call and when that happens its time to go to old faithful and root for points.

Best Bet- Over 43.5

Browns versus Saints

Regardless of what you think about this game any week where Jameis is starting is something we need to cherish. We don’t know how many starts he has left and against a team he played for a year ago the potential for seeing Jameis antics is endless. The Saints utilized their inter coach magic last week in a game where the Rizzler came out and stated he “clogged a toilet”, what an unreal quote. The game is a pick’em as the Saints are a 1 point favorite but in a game of 2 and 3 win teams that means nothing.

Best Bet- Browns ML

Colts versus Jets

Anytime you have to show your defense a presentation on how to tackle to an NFL defense that is a sign that the team stinks. Even crazier is the Jets coach came out and openly admitted having to do that! The Jets are in between a rock and a hard place as Aaron Rodgers still looks hurt and the defense has been getting gashed by the run. The Colts are going back to Anthony Richardson, the second mutiny to remove a Joe from his job this year, in a move that means they have given up on the playoffs and just want to see what the fourth overall pick has. Look for Jonathan Taylor to have his best game of the year and the Jets playoff hopes to officially crash.

Best Bet- Colts +4

Ravens versus Steelers

It is an absolute shame that this game is not played at night. Lamar and company are headed to Pittsburg, one of the few places that Lamar has struggled to win. The biggest difference between the previous meetings and now, Derrick Henry. Even with a stout defense Henry just wears you down and eventually breaks a massive run off late in the second half. The Steelers have been playing great football and Russell Wilson is looking much like his younger self but sadly all good things come to an end. In a game that is always close betting a spread feels like a trap.

Best Bet- Over 48.5

Falcons versus Broncos

Kirk Cousin has a serious issue throwing checkdown passes on a must have fourth down. In a very winnable game that kicking killed them the Falcons will bounce back against a good Broncos defense that had a brilliant effort ruined by a block field goal. Bo Nix had a great bounce back following  a tough game against the Ravens as he got them into position to win before Mahomes did his dark magic and the kick was blocked. This game will be the least watched afternoon slate as defense will show up with the occasional touchdown.

Best Bet- Under 44.5

Seahawks versus 49ers

Last week the 49ers missed field goals, had receivers fighting place holders, and won a game. Brock Purdy looked good against a Bucs team that still has a ton of fight in them. Christian McCaffrey is finally back and Kittle has been amazing (that toe tapping catch was awesome) and Shanahan has been great in the second half of the season. The Seahawks seem to be struggling as they have lost their last two games. Geno has been turning the ball over and even a healthy DK is not enough to save this struggling team.

Best Bet- 49ers -6.5

Chiefs versus Bills

Clearly the game of the week and shocking that this isn’t a stand-alone game but turns out everyone wants to watch Texans vs Cowboys on Monday night. I am not sure what dark lord Mahomes pray to or what ritual Kelce has completed but this team cannot lose. Regardless of how the offense plays the defense will keep them in every game and allow the offense to find a way to sneak out a win. Josh Allen has struggled against the Chiefs in the playoffs but has had success against them in the regular season. The Bills defense has played well and the offense shares the ball. Allen will be the hero America needs and finally get the job done. Mahomes is 12-1-1 as an underdog so this legally cant be called the best bet.

Personal Favorite Bet- Bills -2

Bengals versus Chargers

Shockingly this game may actually turn out to be the best game of the week. I still think the Bengals have a path (this will continue until they are mathematically eliminated) and believe if anyone can figure it out it’s Joe Burrow. The problem with the Bengals is as good as their offense is their defense is that bad. Their secondary essentially is giving out career games to anyone who shows up. Herbert has been unlocked by Harbaugh and the Chargers are playing great football. If any team can break my hope and faith in the Bengals, it’s the Jim Harbaugh led Chargers.

Best Bet- Over 47.5